Estrela vs FC Famalicao prediction — Primeira Liga · Sun 6 Sept · 19:00 UK

Primeira Liga · Sun 6 Sept · 19:00 UK
Estrela 27Draw 27FC Famalicao 46
The call
46%
FC Famalicao to win
2.7
Goals expected
14d 00hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Estrela or draw54%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
BTTS53%
Estrela win to nil15%
FC Famalicao or draw73%
Under 3.5 goals72%
Correct score 1–112%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)L L D D D D
Expected goals gap (xG)-0.4 / match
Head-to-head, last 5EST 1 · D 3 · FAM 1
Opponent strength indexLower mid

Head to head

May 2026Estrela da Amadora 0–0 Famalicao
Dec 2025Famalicao 2–3 Estrela da Amadora
Jan 2025Famalicao 0–0 Estrela da Amadora
Aug 2024Estrela da Amadora 0–3 Famalicao
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Common questions

Who will win Estrela vs FC Famalicao?

Bawler's model rates this match: FC Famalicao are favoured (46% win probability vs 27% for Estrela, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Estrela vs FC Famalicao?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Estrela 1-1 FC Famalicao (12.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.68.

How does Bawler predict Estrela vs FC Famalicao?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Estrela 27%, the draw 27% and FC Famalicao 46%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Estrela vs FC Famalicao?

BTTS: Yes (53% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.14 and away expected goals 1.54.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Estrela vs FC Famalicao?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.68. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Liga Portugal table →
All fixtures & results →Estrela form →FC Famalicao form →