How it finished
Estrela beat C.D. Nacional 3–2. Bawler's model favoured C.D. Nacional at 46% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Estrela 29%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5. C.D. Nacional had 10 shots (5 on target) to Estrela's 14 (4), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 2.1.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 72%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won C.D. Nacional vs Estrela?
Estrela beat C.D. Nacional 3–2. Bawler's model favoured C.D. Nacional at 46% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Estrela 29%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5. C.D. Nacional had 10 shots (5 on target) to Estrela's 14 (4), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 2.1.
What was the final score in C.D. Nacional vs Estrela?
C.D. Nacional 2–3 Estrela, played on 30 Aug 2026 in the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal. Bawler's model had gone into it with C.D. Nacional 46%, the draw 26% and Estrela 29%.
What were the stats in C.D. Nacional vs Estrela?
Full-time: Possession 51%–49%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–2.1, Shots 10–14, Shots on target 5–4, Shots inside box 4–9, Big chances 1–4, Corners 4–3, Saves 1–3, Fouls 12–9, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 2–1.
Did both teams score in C.D. Nacional vs Estrela?
Yes — both C.D. Nacional and Estrela scored, finishing 2–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for C.D. Nacional vs Estrela right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said C.D. Nacional 46%, it finished Estrela (29% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 79%, it finished Landed; Second call — we said 1X 71%, it finished Missed.