Portugal: Primeira LigaSunday 30 Aug, 14:30 UTC

C.D. Nacional vEstrela

Most likely scoreline
1–0
12% of the time · 2.66 goals expected
C.D. Nacional 51%Draw 30%Estrela 20%
How we get there
C.D. NacionalstepEstrela
1.68Base xG · rolling 26-match0.97
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.68Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.97

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

C.D. Nacional average 4.0 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches). Estrela average 2.9 corners per game away from home this season (18 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
7
3
1
1
12
12
6
2
2
10
10
5
2
3
6
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

C.D. Nacional fixtures & form →Estrela fixtures & form →

C.D. Nacional vs Estrela — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between C.D. Nacional and Estrela — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: C.D. Nacional 51% · draw 30% · Estrela 20%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

C.D. Nacional predictions & form →Estrela predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.