FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Saturday, 08 August 2026
Estrela 2–2 Sporting CPMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 08 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Estrela at 36%, draw at 32%, Sporting CP at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Estrela to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Estrela win
36%
Draw
32%
Actual ✓
CP win
32%
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 70%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost