How it finished
Estrela beat Braga 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Braga at 54% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Estrela 22%. It forecast 3.0 goals and the match produced 3. Estrela had 9 shots (5 on target) to Braga's 9 (4), with 37% of the ball against 63%. On expected goals it was 0.6 to 0.6, so Braga created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Estrela vs Braga?
Estrela beat Braga 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Braga at 54% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Estrela 22%. It forecast 3.0 goals and the match produced 3. Estrela had 9 shots (5 on target) to Braga's 9 (4), with 37% of the ball against 63%. On expected goals it was 0.6 to 0.6, so Braga created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Braga?
Estrela 2–1 Braga, played on 10 Sept 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Estrela 22%, the draw 24% and Braga 54%.
What were the stats in Estrela vs Braga?
Full-time: Possession 37%–63%, Expected goals (xG) 0.6–0.6, Shots 9–9, Shots on target 5–4, Shots inside box 8–6, Big chances 1–1, Corners 5–9, Saves 3–3, Fouls 12–14, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 2–1.
Did both teams score in Estrela vs Braga?
Yes — both Estrela and Braga scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Estrela vs Braga right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Braga or draw 78%, it finished Estrela won (22% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Braga to win 54%, it finished Missed.