FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 14 September 2026
Rio Ave 3–3 EstrelaMatch recap · Monday, 14 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Rio Ave win
39%
Draw
27%
Result
Estrela win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 3.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.