FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Friday, 09 October 2026
Braga 1–3 Sporting CPMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 09 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sporting CP or draw at 70%. Bawler had Braga at 30%, the draw at 27% and Sporting CP at 43%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Braga win
30%
Draw
27%
Sporting CP win
43%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.5
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.