Match prediction·USA: MLS·Saturday 15 Aug, 23:30 UTC

CF Montréal vs D.C. United

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
39.3% home30.7% draw30.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
CF MontréalstepD.C. United
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

CF Montréal average 5.8 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). D.C. United average 4.1 corners per game away from home this season (21 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
84%
D.C. United to win
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

CF Montréal fixtures & form →D.C. United fixtures & form →

CF Montréal vs D.C. United — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 23 May 2026, CF Montréal have won 0, D.C. United have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
23 May 2026D.C. United 4–4 CF MontréalUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: CF Montréal 39% · draw 31% · D.C. United 30%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

CF Montréal predictions & form →D.C. United predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.