FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Columbus Crew 1–2 CF MontréalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Columbus Crew at 54%, draw at 25%, CF Montréal at 21%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Columbus Crew to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Crew win
54%
Draw
25%
Montréal win
21%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.78 – 1.05
Total 2.84
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 79%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost