How it finished
Cardiff City and Stoke City drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Cardiff City at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 2. Cardiff City had 26 shots (6 on target) to Stoke City's 12 (4), with 71% of the ball against 29%. Expected goals finished 2.7 to 0.8.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 78%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Cardiff City vs Stoke City?
Cardiff City and Stoke City drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Cardiff City at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 2. Cardiff City had 26 shots (6 on target) to Stoke City's 12 (4), with 71% of the ball against 29%. Expected goals finished 2.7 to 0.8.
What was the final score in Cardiff City vs Stoke City?
Cardiff City 1–1 Stoke City, played on 08 Sept 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Cardiff City 43%, the draw 27% and Stoke City 30%.
What were the stats in Cardiff City vs Stoke City?
Full-time: Possession 71%–29%, Expected goals (xG) 2.7–0.8, Shots 26–12, Shots on target 6–4, Shots inside box 18–8, Big chances 5–2, Corners 7–5, Saves 3–5, Fouls 5–19, Offsides 2–4, Yellow cards 1–2.
Did both teams score in Cardiff City vs Stoke City?
Yes — both Cardiff City and Stoke City scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Cardiff City vs Stoke City right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Cardiff City or draw 70%, it finished Draw (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 54%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 75%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 50%, it finished Missed.