FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Cardiff City 2–2 Sheffield UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Cardiff City at 31%, draw at 26%, Sheffield United at 43%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Sheffield United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
31%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
United win
43%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.31 – 1.59
Total 2.90
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 69%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Cardiff's 10-point lead with four games remaining neutralizes Sheffield United's attacking threat (1.59 xG), making Over 1.5 Goals the high-confidence forecast at 80% despite Cardiff's defensive setup."