FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Wolverhampton Wanderers 4–1 Stoke CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Wolverhampton Wanderers at 62%, draw at 23%, Stoke City at 15%. The match ended 4-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Wolverhampton Wanderers.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Wanderers win
62%
Actual ✓
Draw
23%
City win
15%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.88 – 0.80
Total 2.67
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 62%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Wolverhampton's 1.08 xG advantage and Adam Armstrong's 21% of team shooting creation give the hosts a decisive edge, driving a 62% home-win forecast over Stoke's 0.80 expected output."