FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Portsmouth 2–0 Cardiff CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Portsmouth at 46%, draw at 27%, Cardiff City at 27%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Portsmouth.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Portsmouth win
46%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
City win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.52 – 1.12
Total 2.64
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Portsmouth's desperate fight to escape the drop gives them edge in xG (1.59 vs 1.16), and the model's 73% high-confidence call on 1X reflects how their survival stakes override Cardiff's title pursuit."