FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Cardiff City 3–1 Charlton AthleticMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Cardiff City at 48%, draw at 26%, Charlton Athletic at 25%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Cardiff City.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
48%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Athletic win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.63 – 1.12
Total 2.75
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 73%, driven by Cardiff's 0.34 xG advantage and superior shot-creation despite sitting outside the top six."