FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Bolton Wanderers 1–0 Cardiff CityMatch recap · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Bolton Wanderers win
42%
Result
Draw
27%
Cardiff City win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.