Bristol City vs Portsmouth prediction — Championship · Sat 29 Aug · 15:00 UK

Championship · Sat 29 Aug · 15:00 UK
Bristol City 40Draw 28Portsmouth 32
The call
73%
Over 1.5 goals
2.6
Goals expected
Full time
Final 2–1

How it finished

Bristol City beat Portsmouth 2–1. Bawler's model had Bristol City in front at 40% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 3. Bristol City had 9 shots (3 on target) to Portsmouth's 14 (1), with 46% of the ball against 54%. On expected goals it was 0.6 to 1.4, so Portsmouth created the better chances and still lost the game.

Bristol CityFull-time statsPortsmouth
46%Possession54%
0.6Expected goals (xG)1.4
9Shots14
3Shots on target1
6Shots inside box8
3Big chances1
3Corners10
0Saves1
15Fouls6
1Offsides0
3Yellow cards0
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultBristol City 40%Bristol City (40% called)
Total goals2.63
Both teams to score53%Yes
Model callOver 1.5 Goals 73%Landed
Second callUnder 2.5 Goals 52%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Bristol City to score75%
Under 3.5 goals74%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Portsmouth to score70%

First half — what we expected

Bristol CityBefore half-timePortsmouth
49%Chance to score33%
6.0Expected shots5.5
1.8Expected shots on target1.9
2.1Expected corners1.8
68%Chance of 5+ shots61%
39%Chance of 7+ shots31%
65%Chance of 1+ shots on target65%
28%Chance of 3+ shots on target29%
85%Chance of 1+ corners80%
34%Chance of 3+ corners27%

Chance of at least one first-half goal: 66%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.2 / match
Head-to-head, last 5BRI 4 · D 0 · POR 1
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

Jan 2026Bristol City 5–0 Portsmouth
Nov 2025Portsmouth 0–1 Bristol City
Dec 2024Bristol City 3–0 Portsmouth
Dec 2024Portsmouth 3–0 Bristol City
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Bristol City vs Portsmouth?

Bristol City beat Portsmouth 2–1. Bawler's model had Bristol City in front at 40% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 3. Bristol City had 9 shots (3 on target) to Portsmouth's 14 (1), with 46% of the ball against 54%. On expected goals it was 0.6 to 1.4, so Portsmouth created the better chances and still lost the game.

What was the final score in Bristol City vs Portsmouth?

Bristol City 2–1 Portsmouth, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Bristol City 40%, the draw 28% and Portsmouth 32%.

What were the stats in Bristol City vs Portsmouth?

Full-time: Possession 46%–54%, Expected goals (xG) 0.6–1.4, Shots 9–14, Shots on target 3–1, Shots inside box 6–8, Big chances 3–1, Corners 3–10, Saves 0–1, Fouls 15–6, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 3–0.

Did both teams score in Bristol City vs Portsmouth?

Yes — both Bristol City and Portsmouth scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 53% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Bristol City vs Portsmouth right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Bristol City 40%, it finished Bristol City (40% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 53%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 73%, it finished Landed; Second call — we said Under 2.5 Goals 52%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

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