FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Lincoln City 1–3 PortsmouthMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Lincoln City at 43%, draw at 28%, Portsmouth at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was Lincoln City to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
43%
Draw
28%
Portsmouth win
29%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.42 – 1.12
Total 2.53
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.5 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost