FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Charlton Athletic 0–0 PortsmouthMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Charlton Athletic at 36%, draw at 29%, Portsmouth at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Charlton Athletic to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Athletic win
36%
Draw
29%
Actual ✓
Portsmouth win
34%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.23 – 1.19
Total 2.41
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 66%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Charlton's home advantage and superior win probability (36% vs Portsmouth's 34%) point to 1X as the model's high-confidence call at 66%, though the razor-thin xG gap of 0.04 signals a genuinely competitive contest."