Bologna vs Torino prediction — Serie A · Sat 19 Sept · 14:00 UK

Serie A · Sat 19 Sept · 14:00 UK
Bologna 49Draw 26Torino 25
The call
75%
Bologna or draw
2.8
Goals expected
14d 02hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Bologna to score81%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Under 3.5 goals70%
Torino to score67%

Player forecasts

How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.

Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.

Bologna
1+ shot1+ on target2+ on target
Riccardo Orsolini
MF · 3.3 shots expected
96%
67%
31%
Thijs Dallinga
FW · 2.8 shots expected
94%
59%
23%
Federico Bernardeschi
MF · 2.6 shots expected
93%
56%
20%
Santiago Castro
FW · 2.6 shots expected
93%
60%
24%
Jonathan Rowe
MF · 2.5 shots expected
92%
55%
19%
Jens Odgaard
MF · 2.2 shots expected
89%
51%
16%
Torino
1+ shot1+ on target2+ on target
Giovanni Simeone
FW · 2.5 shots expected
92%
58%
22%
Duván Zapata
FW · 2.2 shots expected
89%
60%
23%
Ché Adams
FW · 2.0 shots expected
87%
53%
18%
Cyril Ngonge
FW · 1.9 shots expected
85%
58%
22%
Cesare Casadei
MF · 1.3 shots expected
71%
43%
11%
Matteo Prati
MF · 1.2 shots expected
69%
11%
1%

These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)D W W D L L
Expected goals gap (xG)+0.6 / match
Head-to-head, last 5BOL 3 · D 2 · TOR 0
Opponent strength indexLower mid

Head to head

Feb 2026Torino 1–2 Bologna
Oct 2025Bologna 0–0 Torino
Feb 2025Bologna 3–2 Torino
Dec 2024Torino 0–2 Bologna
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Common questions

Who will win Bologna vs Torino?

Bawler's model rates this match: Bologna are favoured (49% win probability vs 25% for Torino, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Bologna vs Torino?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Bologna 1-1 Torino (12.3% probability). Expected total goals: 2.76.

How does Bawler predict Bologna vs Torino?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Bologna 49%, the draw 26% and Torino 25%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Bologna vs Torino?

BTTS: Yes (54% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.65 and away expected goals 1.10.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Bologna vs Torino?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.76. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Bologna form →Torino form →