FT · Italy: Serie A · Monday, 19 October 2026
Parma 0–3 TorinoMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 19 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Torino or draw at 69%. Bawler had Parma at 31%, the draw at 28% and Torino at 41%. The match finished 0–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Parma win
31%
Draw
28%
Torino win
41%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.4
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 72% because Parma and Torino combine for 2.54 expected goals, narrow enough to keep both attacking but sufficient volume to break through the low-stakes setup."