FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Bologna 1–3 InternazionaleMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Internazionale or draw at 75%. Bawler had Bologna at 25%, the draw at 25% and Internazionale at 49%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bologna win
25%
Draw
25%
Internazionale win
49%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.7
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 3.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Internazionale or draw
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.