Birmingham City and Wolverhampton Wanderers drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Wolverhampton Wanderers at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 29%. It forecast 2.4 goals; the match produced 4. Birmingham City had 15 shots (6 on target) to Wolverhampton Wanderers' 9 (4), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 2.0.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 68%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Birmingham City and Wolverhampton Wanderers drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Wolverhampton Wanderers at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 29%. It forecast 2.4 goals; the match produced 4. Birmingham City had 15 shots (6 on target) to Wolverhampton Wanderers' 9 (4), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 2.0.
Birmingham City 2–2 Wolverhampton Wanderers, played on 06 Sept 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Birmingham City 32%, the draw 29% and Wolverhampton Wanderers 39%.
Full-time: Possession 53%–47%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–2.0, Shots 15–9, Shots on target 6–4, Shots inside box 12–6, Big chances 2–4, Corners 8–4, Saves 2–5, Fouls 17–12, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 2–1.
Yes — both Birmingham City and Wolverhampton Wanderers scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 49% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw 68%, it finished Draw (29% called); Total goals — we said 2.4, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 49%, it finished Yes.