FT · England: EFL Cup · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Everton 1–0 Wolverhampton WanderersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Everton at 54%, draw at 25%, Wolverhampton Wanderers at 21%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Everton.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Everton win
54%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Wanderers win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.72 – 0.98
Total 2.70
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Everton's 0.75 expected-goals advantage and 54% win probability underpin the 1X forecast at 79%, as Ndiaye's 17% team xG share gives the hosts genuine attacking edge despite Wolves striker Armstrong's 21% contribution."