FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Sheffield Wednesday 0–2 Wolverhampton WanderersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sheffield Wednesday at 14%, draw at 22%, Wolverhampton Wanderers at 64%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Wolverhampton Wanderers.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Wednesday win
14%
Draw
22%
Wanderers win
64%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.82 – 1.98
Total 2.80
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 64%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 31%
✗ Lost