FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
West Ham United 4–2 Wolverhampton WanderersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had West Ham United at 51%, draw at 26%, Wolverhampton Wanderers at 23%. The match ended 4-2 — confirming the model's lean toward West Ham United.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
51%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Wanderers win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.64 – 1.04
Total 2.68
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+3.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won