FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Friday, 28 August 2026
Wrexham 1–2 Birmingham CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 28 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Wrexham at 38%, draw at 28%, Birmingham City at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Wrexham to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Wrexham win
38%
Draw
28%
City win
34%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.33 – 1.25
Total 2.58
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost