What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 77%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
In plain English
AZ Alkmaar should get at least a draw here. They have won four of their last six, and the model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Hapoel Be'er. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
AZ Alkmaar or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er?
Bawler's model rates this match: AZ Alkmaar are favoured (55% win probability vs 21% for Hapoel Be'er, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Hapoel Be'er (11.4% probability). Expected total goals: 2.89.
How does Bawler predict AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives AZ Alkmaar 55%, the draw 24% and Hapoel Be'er 21%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er?
BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.84 and away expected goals 1.05.
Over or under 2.5 goals in AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.89. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).