Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelBesiktas on top, with Dusan Vlahovic our likeliest to test the keeper.
Besiktas v Hapoel Be'er prediction
Besiktas are favourites on our numbers: 56% to win, against 20% for Hapoel Be'er and 24% for a draw. Our predicted score is Besiktas 1–0 Hapoel Be'er: the most likely score if Besiktas win, at 10%. Besiktas are expected to score 1.9 goals and Hapoel Be'er 1.0, 2.9 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (54%) and three or more goals is 55%.
We expect Besiktas to have 20.6 shots (6.6 on target) and Hapoel Be'er 10.5 (3.8 on target), and corners at 6.6 to 3.6. That points to Besiktas doing more of the attacking. Of the players, Dusan Vlahovic (Besiktas) tops both our lists, with 3.9 shots and 1.4 on target expected if they start. Orkun Kökcü of Besiktas is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27.
In their last six games Besiktas have two wins, two draws and two defeats, while Hapoel Be'er have three wins, no draws and three defeats. Besiktas won their most recent match and Hapoel Be'er lost theirs. Of their last two meetings on our records, Besiktas have won two, Hapoel Be'er none. The last meeting ended Beşiktaş 2–1 Hapoel Beer Sheva, in Feb 2017. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Besiktas or Draw, Besiktas Over 15.5 Shots and Dusan Vlahovic 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 53% on our numbers, so the fair price is 10/11, or 1.90.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Besiktas · last 6
Hapoel Be'er · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Besiktas or draw is 80% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Süper Lig table →Common questions
Who will win Besiktas vs Hapoel Be'er?
Bawler's model rates this match: Besiktas are favoured (56% win probability vs 20% for Hapoel Be'er, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Besiktas vs Hapoel Be'er?
Bawler's predicted score is Besiktas 1-0 Hapoel Be'er: the most likely score if Besiktas win, which is the likeliest result (56%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.3%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Besiktas vs Hapoel Be'er?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Besiktas 56%, the draw 24% and Hapoel Be'er 20%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Besiktas vs Hapoel Be'er?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 54% chance. That is based on Besiktas expecting 1.86 goals and Hapoel Be'er 1.02.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Besiktas vs Hapoel Be'er?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 55%.
When are the Besiktas v Hapoel Be'er line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Besiktas v Hapoel Be'er?
Besiktas or Draw (80%), Besiktas Over 15.5 Shots (81%), Dusan Vlahovic 1+ Shot on Target (71%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 53% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.90). 18+, please gamble responsibly.