FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Hapoel Be'er 0–0 Dinamo ZagrebMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Hapoel Be'er at 36%, draw at 26%, Dinamo Zagreb at 39%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Dinamo Zagreb to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Be'er win
36%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Zagreb win
39%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.47 – 1.53
Total 2.99
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 61%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 35%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Hapoel Be'er's home advantage tilts the 1X forecast to 61% despite Zagreb's marginal xG edge (1.53 vs 1.47), as the three-point gap in win probability favors the host avoiding defeat."