FT · Europe: Conference League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
CSKA Sofia 1–2 AS MonacoMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AS Monaco to win at 60%. Bawler had CSKA Sofia at 18%, the draw at 22% and AS Monaco at 60%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
CSKA Sofia win
18%
Draw
22%
AS Monaco win
60%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 2.0
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AS Monaco or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.