FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Lorient 1–0 AS MonacoMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lorient or draw at 63%. Bawler had Lorient at 37%, the draw at 27% and AS Monaco at 37%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lorient win
37%
Result
Draw
27%
AS Monaco win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.