FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 25 October 2026
Toulouse 0–0 TroyesMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 25 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Toulouse to win at 60%. Bawler had Toulouse at 60%, the draw at 22% and Troyes at 18%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Toulouse win
60%
Draw
22%
Result
Troyes win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.0
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced 3.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Toulouse to win
Pre-match: 60%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Toulouse's home advantage combines with a dominant 1.02 expected-goals edge to make a home win the model's 60% call against Troyes."