FT · Europe: Conference League · Thursday, 22 October 2026
AS Monaco 3–0 SC FreiburgMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AS Monaco or draw at 73%. Bawler had AS Monaco at 47%, the draw at 26% and SC Freiburg at 27%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
AS Monaco win
47%
Result
Draw
26%
SC Freiburg win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Monaco's 0.43 expected-goals edge and Balogun's 24% shot share drive the high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 78%, reflecting both sides' attacking intent in a 2.85 xG total."