FT · France: Ligue 1 · Friday, 16 October 2026
Le Mans 0–3 ToulouseMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 16 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Toulouse or draw at 66%. Bawler had Le Mans at 34%, the draw at 25% and Toulouse at 41%. The match finished 0–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Le Mans win
34%
Draw
25%
Toulouse win
41%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.7
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (−0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 3.2.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.