FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 10 October 2026
AS Monaco 2–2 ToulouseMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AS Monaco or draw at 74%. Bawler had AS Monaco at 50%, the draw at 24% and Toulouse at 26%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
AS Monaco win
50%
Draw
24%
Result
Toulouse win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.3
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
AS Monaco or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.