AS Monaco vs Marseille prediction — Ligue 1 · Sun 30 Aug · 19:45 UK

Ligue 1 · Sun 30 Aug · 19:45 UK
AS Monaco 43Draw 24Marseille 32
The call
84%
Over 1.5 goals
3.3
Goals expected
Full time
Final 2–0

How it finished

AS Monaco beat Marseille 2–0. Bawler's model had AS Monaco in front at 43% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals; only 2 were scored. AS Monaco had 11 shots (5 on target) to Marseille's 13 (2), with 35% of the ball against 65%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 1.2.

AS MonacoFull-time statsMarseille
35%Possession65%
1.5Expected goals (xG)1.2
11Shots13
5Shots on target2
7Shots inside box7
3Big chances1
5Corners7
2Saves3
9Fouls10
3Offsides1
4Yellow cards0
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultAS Monaco 43%AS Monaco (43% called)
Total goals3.32
Both teams to score65%No
Model callOver 1.5 Goals 84%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Over 1.5 goals84%
AS Monaco to score83%
Marseille to score78%
Over 2.5 goals64%

First half — what we expected

AS MonacoBefore half-timeMarseille
50%Chance to score54%
6.1Expected shots7.0
2.3Expected shots on target2.6
2.6Expected corners2.0
55%Chance of 6+ shots68%
27%Chance of 8+ shots40%
65%Chance of 2+ shots on target65%
20%Chance of 4+ shots on target26%
70%Chance of 2+ corners58%
27%Chance of 4+ corners16%

Chance of at least one first-half goal: 77%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.3 / match
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

Apr 2026Monaco 2–1 Marseille
Dec 2025Marseille 1–0 Monaco
Apr 2025Monaco 3–0 Marseille
Dec 2024Marseille 2–1 Monaco
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won AS Monaco vs Marseille?

AS Monaco beat Marseille 2–0. Bawler's model had AS Monaco in front at 43% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals; only 2 were scored. AS Monaco had 11 shots (5 on target) to Marseille's 13 (2), with 35% of the ball against 65%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 1.2.

What was the final score in AS Monaco vs Marseille?

AS Monaco 2–0 Marseille, played on 30 Aug 2026 in the FRANCE: Ligue 1. Bawler's model had gone into it with AS Monaco 43%, the draw 24% and Marseille 32%.

What were the stats in AS Monaco vs Marseille?

Full-time: Possession 35%–65%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–1.2, Shots 11–13, Shots on target 5–2, Shots inside box 7–7, Big chances 3–1, Corners 5–7, Saves 2–3, Fouls 9–10, Offsides 3–1, Yellow cards 4–0.

Did both teams score in AS Monaco vs Marseille?

No. It finished 2–0, so Marseille failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 65% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for AS Monaco vs Marseille right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said AS Monaco 43%, it finished AS Monaco (43% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 65%, it finished No; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 84%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

Ligue 1 table →
All fixtures & results →AS Monaco form →Marseille form →