FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Gornik Zabrze 2–3 AS MonacoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Gornik Zabrze at 23%, draw at 25%, AS Monaco at 52%. The match ended 2-3 — confirming the model's lean toward AS Monaco.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Zabrze win
23%
Draw
25%
Monaco win
52%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.10 – 1.78
Total 2.88
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost