FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Gornik Zabrze 2–3 AS MonacoMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AS Monaco or draw at 77%. Bawler had Gornik Zabrze at 23%, the draw at 25% and AS Monaco at 52%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Gornik Zabrze win
23%
Draw
25%
AS Monaco win
52%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.8
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.