FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 01 November 2026
Arouca 1–0 C.D. NacionalMatch recap · Sunday, 01 November 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Arouca win
48%
Result
Draw
26%
C.D. Nacional win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.