FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 08 November 2026
Estrela 2–3 BenficaMatch recap · Sunday, 08 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickWon
Benfica or Draw✓
Leandro Antonetti 1+ Foul Committed✓
Vangelis Pavlidis 1+ Shot on Target✓
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
Estrela win
10%
Draw
17%
Benfica win
73%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.8 – 2.4
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.