FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Alverca 0–1 AroucaMatch recap · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Alverca win
45%
Draw
26%
Arouca win
29%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.