Alanyaspor vs Goztepe prediction — Süper Lig · Sun 13 Sept · 19:00 UK

Süper Lig · Sun 13 Sept · 19:00 UK
Alanyaspor 34Draw 28Goztepe 38
The call
66%
Goztepe or draw
2.6
Goals expected
14d 13hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Under 3.5 goals74%
Goztepe to score74%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Alanyaspor to score72%

Player forecasts

How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.

Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.

Alanyaspor
1+ shot1+ on target2+ on target
Steve Mounié
FW · 2.9 shots expected
95%
60%
23%
Güven Yalcin
FW · 2.3 shots expected
90%
63%
26%
Ibrahim Kaya
MF · 2.1 shots expected
88%
52%
16%
Uchenna Ogundu
FW · 2.1 shots expected
87%
54%
18%
Ianis Hagi
MF · 1.9 shots expected
85%
42%
10%
Meschack Elia
FW · 1.7 shots expected
83%
60%
23%
Goztepe
1+ shot1+ on target2+ on target
Janderson
FW · 2.4 shots expected
91%
58%
21%
Juan
FW · 2.0 shots expected
86%
61%
24%
Efkan Bekiroglu
MF · 1.8 shots expected
84%
39%
9%
Rhaldney
MF · 1.1 shots expected
68%
33%
6%
Novatus Miroshi
MF · 1.1 shots expected
68%
22%
3%
Héliton
DF · 1.1 shots expected
67%
22%
3%

These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)L D W L D W
Expected goals gap (xG)-0.1 / match
Head-to-head, last 5ALA 3 · D 2 · GOZ 0
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

Mar 2026Göztepe 2–2 Alanyaspor
Oct 2025Alanyaspor 1–0 Göztepe
Feb 2025Göztepe 0–1 Alanyaspor
Aug 2024Alanyaspor 1–1 Göztepe
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Common questions

Who will win Alanyaspor vs Goztepe?

Bawler's model rates this match: Goztepe are favoured (38% win probability vs 34% for Alanyaspor, 28% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Alanyaspor vs Goztepe?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Alanyaspor 1-1 Goztepe (13.3% probability). Expected total goals: 2.59.

How does Bawler predict Alanyaspor vs Goztepe?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Alanyaspor 34%, the draw 28% and Goztepe 38%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Goztepe?

BTTS: Yes (53% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.26 and away expected goals 1.33.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Alanyaspor vs Goztepe?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.59. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Süper Lig table →
All fixtures & results →Alanyaspor form →Goztepe form →