FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Galatasaray 3–2 GoztepeMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Galatasaray to win at 61%. Bawler had Galatasaray at 61%, the draw at 21% and Goztepe at 17%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Galatasaray win
61%
Result
Draw
21%
Goztepe win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.1
Total 3.2
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.0 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Galatasaray to win
Pre-match: 61%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Galatasaray's home win is the high-confidence call at 61%, built on a decisive 1.08 expected-goals advantage that reflects their superior attacking threat."