FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Goztepe 0–1 GenclerbirligiMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Goztepe at 59%, draw at 23%, Genclerbirligi at 18%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Goztepe to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Goztepe win
59%
Draw
23%
Genclerbirligi win
18%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.91 – 0.96
Total 2.86
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 82%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 32%
✗ Lost