FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Alanyaspor 1–0 BesiktasMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Alanyaspor at 27%, draw at 27%, Besiktas at 46%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was Besiktas to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Alanyaspor win
27%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Besiktas win
46%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.16 – 1.57
Total 2.73
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 73%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost