FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Alanyaspor 1–0 BesiktasMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Besiktas or draw at 73%. Bawler had Alanyaspor at 27%, the draw at 27% and Besiktas at 46%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Alanyaspor win
27%
Result
Draw
27%
Besiktas win
46%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.6
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Missed
Medium confidence
Besiktas or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.