What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 77%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
In plain English
AFC Bournemouth should win this one. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than SK Sturm Graz. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
AFC Bournemouth to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win AFC Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz?
Bawler's model rates this match: AFC Bournemouth are favoured (79% win probability vs 7% for SK Sturm Graz, 14% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for AFC Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is AFC Bournemouth 2-0 SK Sturm Graz (12.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.31.
How does Bawler predict AFC Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives AFC Bournemouth 79%, the draw 14% and SK Sturm Graz 7%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz?
BTTS: No (55% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 2.65 and away expected goals 0.67.
Over or under 2.5 goals in AFC Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.31. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).