TSG Hoffenheim v SK Sturm Graz prediction
Our model makes TSG Hoffenheim clear favourites for this Europa League game, with a 64% chance of winning. SK Sturm Graz are given 15%, and the draw 21%. If you want one score, our predicted score is TSG Hoffenheim 2–0 SK Sturm Graz, at 11%. TSG Hoffenheim are expected to score 2.1 goals and SK Sturm Graz 0.9, 3.0 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (53%) and three or more goals is 59%.
In their last six games TSG Hoffenheim have three wins, two draws and one defeat, while SK Sturm Graz have one win, one draw and four defeats. TSG Hoffenheim won their most recent match and SK Sturm Graz lost theirs. We expect TSG Hoffenheim to have 8.8 shots (2.7 on target) and SK Sturm Graz 14.1 (5.3 on target), and corners at 3.8 to 3.0. That points to SK Sturm Graz doing more of the attacking.
Of the players, Adam Hložek (TSG Hoffenheim) tops both our lists, with 3.2 shots and 1.1 on target expected if they start. Wouter Burger of TSG Hoffenheim is the most booked player in either squad, once every 3 games in 2026/27.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
TSG Hoffenheim · last 6
SK Sturm Graz · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
TSG Hoffenheim to win is 64% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Bundesliga table →Common questions
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs SK Sturm Graz?
Bawler's model rates this match: TSG Hoffenheim are favoured (64% win probability vs 15% for SK Sturm Graz, 21% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for TSG Hoffenheim vs SK Sturm Graz?
Bawler's predicted score is TSG Hoffenheim 2-0 SK Sturm Graz: the most likely score if TSG Hoffenheim win, which is the likeliest result (64%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.6%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict TSG Hoffenheim vs SK Sturm Graz?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives TSG Hoffenheim 64%, the draw 21% and SK Sturm Graz 15%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in TSG Hoffenheim vs SK Sturm Graz?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. That is based on TSG Hoffenheim expecting 2.12 goals and SK Sturm Graz 0.92.
Over or under 2.5 goals in TSG Hoffenheim vs SK Sturm Graz?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.
When are the TSG Hoffenheim v SK Sturm Graz line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.