FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 18 October 2026
AFC Bournemouth 2–0 SunderlandMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AFC Bournemouth or draw at 76%. Bawler had AFC Bournemouth at 51%, the draw at 25% and Sunderland at 24%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
AFC Bournemouth win
51%
Result
Draw
25%
Sunderland win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
4.3 – 0.1
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
AFC Bournemouth to win
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.