FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026

AFC Bournemouth 3–0 SK Sturm GrazMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026

AFC Bournemouth
3–0
AFC Bournemouth win
SK Sturm Graz

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was AFC Bournemouth to win at 78%. Bawler had AFC Bournemouth at 78%, the draw at 15% and SK Sturm Graz at 7%. The match finished 3–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

AFC Bournemouth win
78%
Result
Draw
15%
SK Sturm Graz win
7%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.6 – 0.7
Total 3.3
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 0.4
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
AFC Bournemouth to win
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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