FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Chelsea 5–1 AFC BournemouthMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Chelsea or draw at 69%. Bawler had Chelsea at 44%, the draw at 24% and AFC Bournemouth at 31%. The match finished 5–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Chelsea win
44%
Result
Draw
24%
AFC Bournemouth win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.4
Total 3.2
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+2.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.