FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 20 September 2026
AFC Bournemouth 0–1 LiverpoolMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had AFC Bournemouth at 41%, draw at 25%, Liverpool at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was AFC Bournemouth to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Bournemouth win
41%
Draw
25%
Liverpool win
34%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.62 – 1.45
Total 3.08
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 82% because both sides generate similar attacking threat—Bournemouth's 1.66 xG and Liverpool's 1.47 xG combine for 3.13 expected, suggesting a fluid contest where Ekitiké's 23% shot share and Evanilson's 18% will find chances."