Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock prediction — Scottish Prem · Sat 5 Sept · 15:00 UK

Scottish Prem · Sat 5 Sept · 15:00 UK
Aberdeen 47Draw 25Kilmarnock 28
The call
47%
Aberdeen to win
2.9
Goals expected
13d 13hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Aberdeen or draw72%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals56%
BTTS58%
Aberdeen win to nil23%
Kilmarnock or draw53%
Under 3.5 goals66%
Correct score 1–111%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)W L L W W W
Expected goals gap (xG)+0.4 / match
Head-to-head, last 5ABE 4 · D 0 · KIL 1
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

Apr 2026Aberdeen 1–0 Kilmarnock
Jan 2026Kilmarnock 3–0 Aberdeen
Dec 2025Aberdeen 2–1 Kilmarnock
Oct 2025Kilmarnock 0–1 Aberdeen
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Common questions

Who will win Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

Bawler's model rates this match: Aberdeen are favoured (47% win probability vs 28% for Kilmarnock, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Aberdeen 1-1 Kilmarnock (11.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.94.

How does Bawler predict Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Aberdeen 47%, the draw 25% and Kilmarnock 28%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

BTTS: Yes (58% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.69 and away expected goals 1.25.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.94. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Premiership table →
All fixtures & results →Aberdeen form →Kilmarnock form →